AI Expert Warns 99% of Workers Will Lose Jobs by 2030

Roman Yampolskiy, a computer science professor at the University of Louisville, just made one of the most alarming predictions about jobs and AI that we've ever heard.

Speaking on "The Diary of a CEO" podcast, Yampolskiy said that artificial intelligence will eliminate almost every job within the next five years.

"In 5 years, we're looking at a world where we have levels of unemployment we never seen before. Not talking about 10% but 99%," Yampolskiy said during the interview.

That means only 1 out of every 100 people would still have a job.

The AI Safety Pioneer Behind This Shocking Prediction

Yampolskiy isn't just making wild guesses. He's been studying AI safety for 15 years and has serious credentials.

"I coined the term AI safety," Yampolskiy said in the interview. He's a computer scientist with a PhD and has published over 100 papers on AI dangers.

He started worrying about AI taking over back when most people weren't even thinking about it. "I probably started work in AI safety mildly defined as control of bots at the time 15 years ago," he explained.

Yampolskiy believes we'll have artificial general intelligence (AGI) by 2027. That's AI that can do anything a human can do across all areas.

"We're probably looking at AGI as predicted by prediction markets and tops of the labs. So we have artificial general intelligence by 2027," he said.

Once that happens, he thinks the job market will collapse quickly.

"If I can just get, you know, a $20 subscription or a free model to do what an employee does. First, anything on a computer will be automated. And next, I think humanoid robots are maybe 5 years behind. So in five years all the physical labor can also be automated," Yampolskiy explained.

Why Every Career Is At Risk and Retraining Is Useless

When the podcast host asked if his job as a podcaster was safe, Yampolskiy said NO.

"Large language model today can easily read everything I wrote. Yeah. And have very solid understanding better. I assume you haven't read every single one of my books. Right? That thing would do it," he told the host.

The AI could also "train on every podcast you ever did. So, it knows exactly your style, the types of questions you ask."

Even jobs that people think are safe from AI aren't actually safe. Yampolskiy specifically mentioned coding and prompt engineering.

"AI is way better at designing prompts for other AIs than any human. So that's gone," he said.

Unlike past technology changes, Yampolskiy says this time is different. Usually when machines take over some jobs, people can learn new skills for other jobs.

"Before we always said this job is going to be automated, retrain to do this other job. But if I'm telling you that all jobs will be automated, then there is no plan B. You cannot retrain," he explained.

He gave the example of how advice has changed: "Two years ago, we told people learn to code. you are an artist, you cannot make money. Learn to code. Then we realized, oh, AI kind of knows how to code and getting better. Become a prompt engineer. You can engineer prompts for AI. It's going to be a great job. Get a four-year degree in it. But then we're like, AI is way better at designing prompts for other AIs than any human. So that's gone."

What Jobs Would Survive and What's the Real Problem?

According to Yampolskiy, very few jobs would remain in his predicted future.

"All you have left is jobs where for whatever reason you prefer another human would do it for you. But anything else can be fully automated," he said.

He gave examples of the tiny number of jobs that might survive:

"There are jobs where you want a human. Maybe you're rich and you want a human accountant for whatever historic reasons. Old people like traditional ways of doing things. Warren Buffett would not switch to AI. He would use his human accountant. But it's a tiny subset of a market."

He compared it to how some people still buy handmade products: "Today we have products which are man-made in US as opposed to mass-produced in China and some people pay more to have those but it's a small subset. It's a almost a fetish. There is no practical reason for it."

Yampolskiy admits that if AI does all the work, there should be plenty of wealth to go around.

"If you create a lot of free labor, you have a lot of free wealth, abundance, things which are right now not very affordable become dirt cheap and so you can provide for everyone basic needs," he said.

But he thinks the bigger problem is what people will do with their time.

"The hard problem is what do you do with all that free time? For a lot of people, their jobs are what gives them meaning in their life. So they would be kind of lost," Yampolskiy explained.

He pointed out that governments aren't ready for this: "governments don't have programs prepared to deal with 99% unemployment."

How Other Experts See AI and Jobs Differently

Most other AI experts don't think things will happen this fast or be this extreme.

According to the article sources, Geoffrey Hinton (called the "Godfather of AI") thinks AI will replace "mundane intellectual labor" but believes manual jobs like plumbing will be safer.

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang thinks AI will create new jobs, not just eliminate old ones.

OpenAI's Sam Altman believes society will adapt and create new types of work.

These experts see big changes coming, but not the near-total job elimination that Yampolskiy predicts.

There are several reasons why Yampolskiy's prediction might be wrong:

1) Technology often takes longer to spread than people expect: Yampolskiy himself noted: "A lot of times technology exists but it's not deployed. Video phones were invented in the 70s. Nobody had them until iPhones came around."

2) Current AI still has major limitations: While AI can do impressive things, it still makes mistakes and can't handle many real-world situations that human workers deal with every day.

3) Companies need customers: If 99% of people don't have jobs, they won't have money to buy products. This would hurt the same companies that might want to replace workers with AI.

What People Should Do

Rather than panicking, Yampolskiy suggests people focus on things they can control.

When asked what the average person should do, he said: "So that's the paradigm shift here. Before we always said this job is going to be automated, retrain to do this other job. But if I'm telling you that all jobs will be automated, then there is no plan B."

His advice is broader: "we as a humanity then we all lose our jobs. What do we do? What do we do financially? Who's paying for us? And what do we do in terms of meaning?"

The Bottom Line

Yampolskiy's warning is worth taking seriously because of his expertise, but his timeline seems much more extreme than what other experts predict.

The truth is probably somewhere in between. AI will likely change many jobs and eliminate some, but probably over a longer time period and not as completely as Yampolskiy suggests.

The smart approach is to stay informed about AI developments, learn how to work with AI tools rather than against them, and focus on skills that are harder for machines to copy - like creativity, problem-solving, and working with people.

Most importantly, don't let fear of an uncertain future prevent you from making good decisions today.